Congressional Candidate Filing Period Opens in SoCal
The filing period for candidates to lock in their decision to run opens this week. A new poll shows CA-25’s Steve Knight (R) and CA-48’s Dana Rohrabacher (R) deeply unpopular with their constituents. 800 spectators show up to witness a debate between Rohrabacher’s Democratic challengers. The progressive ground game engine roared forward across all of SoCal. Less than two weeks to the opening of the California Democratic Party State Convention on Feb 23-25. Here’s the news from the front lines…
According to a poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, voter opinions of CA-25 incumbent Steve Knight is highly correlated with opinions of Donald Trump. Newsflash: those opinions are not good. Knight has a 37% approval rating among likely voters, 53% disapproval, and 40% of those disapprove strongly. It probably won’t help him that Swing Left CA-25 trained over 100 new canvassers in neighboring Valley Village this week, and NextGen California was holding an Antelope Valley DACA phone bank.
Please go to the Swing SoCal Left CA-25 Calendar to find opportunities to help.
With Republican Ed Royce retiring, CA-39 remains a wide open field. The threat of a jungle primary in which a split vote shuts Democratic candidates out looms. Things get interesting this week as February 13th marks the opening of the filing period when candidates can go to the OC Registrar of Voters Office and actually officially lock in their decision to run and end speculation. It’s the point of no return, and the Democratic Party of Orange County shows no sign of leaning on candidates to pull out. It’s the last chance for Republican candidates who’ve played it close to the vest to jump in. We’ll know exactly how many candidates we have from either party on March 9: the last day to file.
Meanwhile, the progressive ground game in 39 is escalating, as the great turnout in Chino Hills this weekend shows. Progressive 39, Fair 39, Indivisible Claremont and Swing Left Inland Valley teamed up for an impressive showing.
Visit the Swing SoCal Left CA-39 calendar to find ways to get involved in District 39.
With CA-45 incumbent Mimi Walters in it to win it this cycle, the district doesn’t face the same threat of a Democrat not making the primary cut that CA-39 does. In the reddest district of Orange County, one would think Walters would feel safe, but she continues culling constituent comments from her government page and still hasn’t had an in person public event for her constituents since October of 2016. She isn’t likely to be more encouraged to hear that Organizing For Action California waded into her district this week with it’s first in-depth OC+ Campaign Tactics Training in Irvine. Meanwhile, the Democrats of Greater Irvine were of course canvassing again this Saturday and collecting “I Pledge to Vote” cards. And now they’re phone banking every Thursday night too.
Join the fight in 45 by visiting the CA-45 calendar.
There’s been a lot of fear and speculation about heavy-hitter Republican candidates like Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel or Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh jumping into the race in CA-48 if Dana Rohrabacher pulled out, or even if he didn’t. While most sources consider such scenarios wild, any surprise drop-ins or drop-outs would have to happen in the next month.
UC Berkeley’s IGS poll finds Rohrabacher’s approval rating at 38% compared to 50% who disapprove, 38% strongly. That seemed reflected in the turnout at the main event in CA-48 this week: Indivisible OC-48, WAVE and the Communication Action Fund of Planned Parenthood Orange & San Bernadino Counties hosted a Women’s Issues Debate for six of the candidates vying for Dana Rohrabacher’s seat. No less than 800 constituents turned out to see the 48th District Congressional Debate on Women’s Issues here.
A three question straw poll after the event drew 238 votes. Harley Rouda scored the high number for all three questions: Performance, Ability/Understanding, and “who would you vote for if the election were held today”?
To find ways to help ease Rohrabacher into retirement, visit Swing SoCal Left’s CA-48 calendar.
As in CA-39, eyes will be on the Registrar’s office, though none of the key challengers are expected to blink and drop out. Flip the 49th’s Neighbors in Action continued to leave the charge this week with events in Vista, Oceanside AND Solana Beach, not to mention phone banking in Carlsbad. They will be out at it again this weekend if you missed it.
Please check out the CA-49 Event Calendar and come back next week for more News From The Front Line.